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Die Estofex Prognose für den 18.August

Storm Forecast
Valid: Thu 18 Aug 2022 06:00 to Fri 19 Aug 2022 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 17 Aug 2022 20:12
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 3 was issued across Corsica and central Italy mainly for large to very large hail, damaging wind gusts, excessive rainfall, and tornadoes.



A deep trough is forecast to move from NE Iberia towards Italy. Between the trough and a ridge stretching from S Italy into the Balkans, a strong mid to upper tropospheric flow is simulated. Abundant low-level moisture combined with steep mid-tropospheric lapse rates advected from Sahara yields very high CAPE values over the central Mediterranean. Towards the E, a shallow mid-tropospheric low remains over S Russia, Ukraine, and the Black Sea. Closer to the surface, an ill-defined frontal boundary will be situated over Germany, S E France, N Italy, and the western Mediterranean.


... Balearic Sea through Corsica, Sardegna, Italy into the Adriatic Sea ...

An outbreak of (extremely) severe thunderstorms is expected over the area!

An extreme overlap of CAPE and shear is forecast across the area, especially over the seas and the adjacent coastlines. MLCAPE > 3000 J/kg will combine with 0-6 km shear between 25 and 35 m/s and 0-3 km shear between 20 and 30 m/s. Storms forming in this environment will have a high probability to become extremely severe. They will be initiated by the warm air advection in the early morning hours, followed by further initiation along the advancing cold front and ahead of the axis of the trough. The highest coverage is forecast in the late afternoon to early night hours. All models agree on the CAPE-shear overlap and storms being present somewhere within the Lvl 2. Large discrepancies in the presence and timing of storms can be found in convection-allowing models.


Die Estofex Prognose für den 17.August

Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 17 Aug 2022 06:00 to Thu 18 Aug 2022 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 16 Aug 2022 19:49
Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 2 was issued across the W Mediterranean into SE France, W Switzerland and N Italy mainly for large to very large hail, excessive rainfall, severe wind gusts and tornadoes.